Photovoltaic technology in the EU

Future prospects

According to the Commission’s energy demand forecast, photovoltaic energy could provide 12% of European electricity demand by 2020. Moreover, grid parity (competitiveness with retail electricity prices) will be reached progressively from 2010 onwards in several European markets. Countries with the highest solar irradiation and higher electricity prices, such as Italy and Spain have the potential to reach grid parity starting in 2010 and 2012, respectively. Grid parity will be reached in Germany in 2015 and cover progressively most other EU countries up until 2020.

According to the fifth Solar Generation report, published by Greenpeace and EPIA in September 2008, over 1800 GW of photovoltaic systems will be installed worldwide by 2030. This would represent over 2600 TWh of electricity produced per year, or 14% of global electricity demand. This is enough power to supply over 1.3 billion people in developed areas and over 3 billion people in remote rural areas who currently have no access to mains electricity. As a result, up to 1.6 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2030 would be avoided, the equivalent to the emissions of 450 coal-fired power plants. In 2020, over 2 million people are expected to be working in the sector. By 2030, employment in the sector could reach almost 10 million people worldwide.

Hurdles to be overcome by research

The key technology developments needed for PV over the coming years are:

• to increase the efficiency and reduce the material intensity and costs of crystalline-SI modules;
• to increase the efficiency and lifespan of thin film modules; and
• to guarantee sufficient public and private R&D funding for the development of third-generation novel devices (ultra-high efficiency and ultra-low cost cells).

Regarding third generation devices, research has already shown that conversion efficiency can be significantly improved: the first high-efficiency cell, capable of converting 40% of the sunlight directly into electricity, has already been produced (compared to an efficiency of 15% for a typical commercial solar cell today). The next step will be to bring this technology to the market, through up-scaling and cost reduction.

Increasing photovoltaics deployment needs to be accompanied by increased grid flexibility. Current electricity transmission and distribution systems have been designed and developed to manage more traditional generation technologies, and are not appropriate for large-scale photovoltaics penetration, whether centralised or distributed.

While undertaking research for overcoming technical hurdles, efforts must be reinforced for transmitting to the widest audience possible the message that solar electricity will bring economical, social and environmental benefits to the regions that will promote it.

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/eu/research/photovoltaics/background/index_en.htm

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